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The Next Console

Posted by Jon Peddie on May 19th 2008 | Discuss
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At dinner the other night, I was asked by some friends from the University of Illinois what I thought the next game console would be like. I told them I didn’t think there would be a next game console. I waited for them to decide if I should be physically removed or if they wanted to hear more. They chose more, but cautiously. I noticed the security guards moving closer.

The problem is Moore’s law, form factor, programming tools, and the exception is a new form of entertainment.

Moore’s law

Moore’s law provides a constant improvement for PCs, allowing them to surpass game consoles within six months of the console’s introduction. To compensate for that, the game console suppliers have to offer incentives to the game developers and promise a huge, stable, installed base—that has worked so far. But, more and more, the exciting, edgy games have been coming out on the PC.

Form factor

Form factor is critical too. Today’s and the last three generations (or four depending when you count) of game consoles are tethered boxes, modern versions can claim set-top-box status and look more and more like a STB with DVD, 5.1 (and soon 7.1) optical piped audio, WiFi, and remote (RF, vision, and IR) control; there’s even TV capability for some, relegating your expensive HDTV to a simple display.

The HDTV makers are proposing building the game controller into the expensive HDTV, which seem intriguing at first glace but is doomed to a no-start proposition. Why? Because the lifetime usage of a TV is 10 years minimum and the lifetime usage for a game console is five years max. Suppose you had an expensive 50-inch HDTV and it has a PS2 or Nintendo GameCube built into it, how would that excite you? The only alternative for the TV makers would be to build a proprietary game system, and that requires a whole infrastructure of game developers and tools which isn’t going to happen—game developers are trying to reduce the platforms they support, not increase them.

Programming tools

The PS3 has proven that the Achilles heel of consoles are programming tools. An ambitious and intriguing machine, the PS3, but reportedly very difficult to program, and hence the slow delivery of games for the super hardware. The development time and learning curve for programs to extract the power of the PS3 has been much longer than anyone thought it would be. Microsoft got some time advantage and cross-platform benefit from the Direct X 9.9 capabilities of the Xbox 360, and Nintendo, well, Nintendo is in a different class.

The exception—maybe

If there is a next-gen console it will not have the conventional controller—Nintendo and its imitators have pretty much proven that paradigm. What Nintendo gave up in terms of graphics performance, it more than made up for in a new form of entertainment. And it still has its FPSers, SIMs, and online games, but that has not been its main focus or strength.

What the future holds

So, I think the next generation of game consoles will be a handheld device that will be self-contained like the PSP (but without that dopey proprietary UMD.) The PSP has the right form factor and screen size and resolution (for this generation). Connect that type of form factor to the HDTV; add motion sensing devices to it and it becomes the wand of a Nintendo. And, it still retains the portability of a handheld so it can go on the road with you or to your buddy’s house for a playoff. And, and again, due to Moore’s law, the miniaturization can lead to a handheld Nintendo-like experience and offering as well.

The beloved game controller can be connected via Bluetooth, and an HD output (either HDMI or component) can be wireless or wired too depending on budget constraints. And, of course, it will be connected to the net via WiFi for all your gaming buddies to whoop up on your sorry ass.

And remember my previous prediction that Apple will get into the game console business. With the recent acquisition of PA Semi, they are more enabled than ever now to exactly that.

So the console is dead—long live the (hand held) console—and never, ever, turn your back on the PC.