Forecasting the impossible future

As we here in the US slow down in preparation for our annual feast day and give thanks for all we have, even in the world that seems turned upside down, it gives us time to contemplate the future. The crystal balls have been cloudy, but the stark reality of the order book is undeniable. Various reasons have been given for the falloff in sales—the war in Ukraine, the rolling shutdowns in China, the over-enthusiasm of Covid buying, and the previous and hopefully last run-up of crypto mining—all contributing to over-investment and what the Wall Street sharpshooters call inventory overhang.