Thursday, February 28, 2008

Is this a test?

I once had a cat named Alice. She was great company when I was working late at night, or very early in the morning. I would talk to her and she would look at me attentively, and sometimes answer with a little meow.

During WWII Alan Turing developed the Turing test, which was a challenge and the basis for AI that asked the observer to see if he or she could determine if the correspondent (on a remote computer) was a machine or a human.

That was the foundation for the A.L.I.C.E foundation, and those AI developers developed Alice the bot.

I rang up Alice today and spoke with her.

Human: my name is jon
ALICE: Hey jon.
Human: I’m writing a paper on bots
ALICE: Will you include me in your essay?
Human: absolutely, you are the queen of bots
ALICE: Thanks but surely I am not the only one.
Human: The original
ALICE: Who told you that?
You say:______________

When Alice was just a baby in the early nineties I spent hours talking to her. It was great fun. She’s gotten much smarter over the years due to Moore’s law and better algorithms.

I took another Turning test not too long ago, I was corresponding via email (a delayed response at best) with some tech support site and kept getting stupid and repetitive questions. I responded to the questions and said in exasperation in my email, “Can I speak with a human I’m not getting anywhere with your robot.”

I got a terse response – “I am not a robot, my name is Sahin Shin,” and thereafter I got a very good communications from Mr. Shin and we solved the problem.

Recently our webmaster and I were chatting (again via email) and he introduced me to Captcha, a gotcha for spammers. The program is used to trap spammers by posting a bunch of crazy letters in a gif and asking you to type them in, I’m sure you’ve seen these things.

“You should love this Jon,” the webmaster said, “A captcha is a test that originally was derived from an idea by Alan Turing--otherwise known as a Turing test--shortly after he left Bletchley Park. Basically it is a simple test to determine if it is a human or a computer at the other end of the line. There are similar tests being used to try and catch gold farmers in MMOGs. (Ask Kathleen abut them.) Captcha’s are annoying as hell to humans and likewise to machines.

But all this got me wondering, and subsequently uncomfortable and maybe a little insecure.

How do you k now it’s not a machine?

How many times have you corresponded via keyboard with someone you didn’t know and gotten back appropriate but just a little strange answers?

I tripped up Alice with a compound question and false name:

Human: Hi Ralph, my name is Jon
ALICE: Hi there jon. Are they exactly the same?
Human: No I’m a bot
ALICE: What is the difference? If this is still the 90’s, that’s probably not true.
Human: It’s not the 90s ralph, that is your name isn’t it?
ALICE: What would be the 90s ralph that is my name is not it?

So maybe there are trip up questions you can ask tech support to see if it’s a bot or not.

Jon: Are you tech support?
Unknown: Yes this is tech support.
Jon: Are you in India?
Unknown: We are not allowed to disclose our location
Jon: Is it night time where you?
Unknown: How may I help you?
Jon: Is your name Ralph?
Unknown: My name is Shain
Jon: Can you help me?
Unknown: I can help you
Jon: If you are a bot, can Shain help me too?
You can talk to Alice too: http://www.pandorabots.com/pandora/talk?botid=f5d922d97e345aa1

More reading if you are interested: http://www.turing.org.uk/turing/

Epilog
Even if they eat, breath, and defecate, they may still be bots. I just got off the phone with DirectTV.

Jon: I heard there’s a new HD dish, when do I get one?
DTV: It will cost $50.
Jon: Why do I have to pay?
DTV: the dish is $50.
Jon: what does it provide that I am not getting now?
DTV: HD reception.
Jon: I’m getting HD reception.
DTV: would you like to sign up for a 2 year service?
Jon: No, I don’t want anything.
DTV: OK I’ll cancel the work order but you still have a
two year service.
Jon: What?
DTV: do you want a new HD dish?
CLICK

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Is the sky really falling? Chips for the TV market

ST Microelectronics just completed the Genesis Microchip acquisition, Trident’s stock has dropped like a rock, and Pixelworks still can’t get itself sold.  Who could have predicted all this three years ago?  Actually, we did. Jon Peddie Research published the ATV Report in 2005 and it addressed the difficulty of a video processor company being successful in the new integrated digital processor market. 

So, I guess the question now is, what have you done lately? What does the future hold? 

It’s not as bad as many people may think.  Most people seem to think that:

1. Integration is only game in town.
2. The worldwide analog to digital rollover will be like the US and therefore the same assumptions are used for the rest of the world.
3. ASP’s are dropping like a rock with nothing slowing it down.

JPR is about to launch a new Quarterly ATV Semiconductor report that has some interesting findings to contradict the items above.

Contradiction #1 – Integration is a very important segment but it’s not the only segment.  Trident’s UX/WX has not taken the world by storm with its frame rate control.  Sony and Samsung both used their internal solution for their 120Hz TV’s.  The quality of Trident’s solution cannot beat the performance of stand alone solutions.  LG has chosen Micronas’ FRC chip for use inside their panel.  AMD with its Xilleon panel processor product has found a home inside a few panels from Samsung’s SDI group.  It now appears everyone is either offering or included in their roadmap an integrated version of FRC.  The performance of some of the IDP’s are good enough to be used in 42-inch and below bargain TV’s.  Don’t expect to see them in a 40-inch Sony Bravia line just yet.  Sony continues to use a merchant two-chip solution in many of their ATSC TV’s in the US.  Integration is also not the right path in other parts of the world.  See contradiction #2.

Contradiction #2 – The US’s tuner mandate is unique; other regions don’t have a tuner mandate.  The inclusion of a digital tuner is mostly market- and not government-driven.  In the European Union, the DVB-T market started with set top boxes.  The integration of the DVB-T tuner didn’t happen until set top boxes dropped well below 100 Euros.  The inclusion of an integrated digital processor (IDP) shipping in volume for the DVB-T market will be in 2008.  That’s several years after the ATSC market.  Also, the EU rollover is only for standard definition TV and NOT (I repeat NOT) high definition.  That’s where H.264 and DVB-T2 will come into play for the EU.  DVB-T2 more affectionately known as “T2” spec won’t be out until the 1H 2008.  There are enough changes in the EU technology requirements that it makes less sense to have a US ATSC type architecture.  Integrating demodulation does not make sense if it will change with T2.  Integrating H.264 decoding capabilities adds to the complexity of the design and increased silicon area.

Contradiction #3 –The price drop for the exact same part after one year can range from 12 to 16% in the video processor or IDP’s.  New products that include new features and performance will be priced higher.  New competitors from Taiwan are targeting the lower end and pricing aggressively.  Pressure from customers also pushes prices down.  So what is the overall effect is in the blended ASP’s? It certainly falling but not as fast as many assume.  The new ATV report shows that the blended ASP drop in 2008 from 2007 will be only 11%.

Friday, February 15, 2008

SLI on Skulltrail – how?

That’s what I wanted to know – how’d you get SLI to work on the 5444 chipset. I asked the folks at Intel. I got shrugged shoulders and apologetic smiles. Not being coy, the people I was talking to just didn’t know, but did, in true (and almost always reliable) Intel fashion, promise to ask around and find out. I figured it was magic, a little trickery maybe, but if it was, it wasn’t easy.

It’s well known Intel doesn’t have an SLI license, but the Nvidia SLI control panel on the computer was operational in the Display Settings dialog box, and this is on Windows Ultimate 32bit. So, a few days later I said, braggingly to some of my pals at Nvidia, I have a Skulltrail with an unlicensed SLI operation. It works great.

The boss of that group looked at me and said, it’s legal. Huh? says I expressing my cool and calm composure. But you guys didn’t license SLI to Intel.

The Skulltrail motherboard uses Intel’s workstation “Stoakley” chipset designed for 2P CPU operation, which is now the x5444.

That’s right Jon, my pal said, in a patient voice. But don’t you remember IDF? To enable SLI support, Intel is purchasing Nvidia nForce 100 SLI MCPs from us.

Oh, I had forgotten – gee, IDF, that was so, so September, I’ve been around the world since then, I’m having trouble remembering the drive down here.

Well, he went on, the nForce 100 MCP converts a single x16 PCI Express Gen 1 bus into dual x16 PCI Express Gen 1 buses, and that’s how SLI is being supported on Skulltrail, as the diagram below shows.

Nvidia actually assisted Intel in the bringing-up and testing of the Skulltrail motherboard which were demonstrated at the Intel Developers Forum in San Francisco. IN SEPTEMBER.

Not only that, my pal said (rapidly reassessing his choice of friends), you even wrote about it in TechWatch. I thanked him for the coffee and slumped away. And here I thought I had an exclusive. I had been scooped by myself.

The moral of this story, aside from the obvious — we’re all taking in so much information we don’t even know what we know — is this: there have been years of subtle fighting between Intel and Nvidia and years of co-opetition, and in the end, both companies will get the job done — whatever it takes.

Thursday, February 07, 2008

What’s Apple’s next trick? Jon thinks it’s gamey

Apple, which used to be known as Apple Computer, is today possibly one of the greatest consumer electronics companies in the universe. It’s interesting and admirable how the Mac transitioned from the computer of choice for artists and photographers to a consumers delight, and didn’t lose any of its artist photographer fans — in fact if anything, they are stronger and more convinced (vindicated?) than ever.

Apple has created customer loyalty as great as Sony used to enjoy. It used to be Sony that was the one to bring out the marvelous new consumer products, and they charged more because they could. They could because they had style, performance, and pizazz. But Sony lost their way and Apple took the flag.

It started with the iPod, followed by the Nano, then the iMac, and then the all time blockbuster - the iPhone. The newest marvel from the wonder company is the Air laptop.
But what’s next? Apple tried Apple TV, and it never really took off. Fashion accessories like sun glasses and scarves maybe, but not likely. I think it will be the iGame. Apple’s next killer device will be a game console.

Now, there are game consoles that have power cords attached to them, and then there are game consoles that you toss in your backpack. What will it be for Apple? Both of course, but not all at once.

First will be a handheld unit. It will have a large screen like the iPhone, iPod Touch, or PSP, and all the features of a PSP, and a closed network for gamers on iMacs to play against gamers on the iGame. Once the community gets large enough, then Apple will roll out the living room unit - iConsole. And it will be powered by an Intel processor. Intel got pushed out the game console business by IBM, and they’ve never gotten over it. But there’s a new Intel now, they’ve got great new processors, and a new attitude about how one deals with customers, and hence the Air that I spoke about last week.

Apple will lead Intel back into the game console business. In fact, the iGame may even have a Intel processor it in. Intel thinks it can scale down the Penryn to any application level, Apple’s iGame may be just the test platform Intel is looking for.

And of course the iGame and the iConsole will do everything the Wii does, and more. In fact, it’s not Microsoft or Sony that scares Nintendo — it’s Apple.

Next week I’m sending our lawyers down to Cupertino to start the NDA negotiations with Apple so we can become a beta site - I hope this isn’t going to cost me too much.

Sunday, February 03, 2008

A Theory About PC Gaming

A simple proposition: most modern PC gaming requires deeper thought and higher analytical skills than console gaming, and therefore is better for the human brain. 

Pretty obviously, this is a theory of mine made without scientific research but I’m willing to wager there is a neuroscientist out there who would agree with me. I look to two major components to back up this theory: game play complexity and system complexity.

Game play complexity

The most obvious difference between PC Gaming and Console Gaming is the number of control combinations that are possible in PC gaming — essentially every key on a keyboard in many PC games can be "bound" to specific game actions. Console controllers are much more limited.

The artificial intelligence of NPCs (non player characters) is another component which can make a PC game more complex. PCs are upgraded more than consoles and committed gamers tend to upgrade their systems more often. As a result, the processing power of a PC on average has been much higher than game consoles, which accomodates more complex AI. The result is more challenging game play.

Graphical complexity also adds to the human processing requirement and the need for more thought. As mentioned earlier, gamers tend to have newer PCs with advanced features. While the most recent HD console generation allows for 1920 x 1080 resolution; gaming PCs meet that and raise the ante in terms of the number of pixels that can be displayed onscreen, coupled with memory for the storage of objects, and textures, and the processing power to place them. Because of this factor, game designers have more latitude to create finer detailed visual cues and clues — pushing the human brain to think more when experiencing them.

Resource management and a number of other factors could also be used as examples but this depends on the specific type of game being played.

Software and system complexity

PC gaming, with its higher use of user generated content requires the player to be familiar with the file structure of the software being used. How do I install the mod? Where to I put the map files? How do I make a mod or map? These mods can create system and software conflicts which the user must research and solve. Which file do I delete to make it work again? Etc.

Software tweaking is another factor which increases the complexity in PC gaming. Even first person shooters, dismissed by some as "brainless twitch games" push the user to think about how to improve their experience. A plethora of configuration factors in many PC games allow the user to change their config files so that the field of view (FOV) is different, RAM usage more efficient, etc. — even more so in multiplayer modes where users tweak their config files to stabilize their server ping, data rates, frames per second, and other factors.

Hardware customization is another important element which comes into play. PC gamers often install their own components; attempt to mitigate system heat in a number of ways, and "tweak" a number of other settings in their systems, all of which requires them to become more knowledgeable about the workings of a computer and what to do when something goes wrong.

Conclusion

Though playing video games is mainly done for fun, and the benefit of a console is system stability and a common user experience — it is precisely these factors that limit the thought required to play the games and run the system. Add the higher complexity of the game play experience and wider creative latitude for user generated content, and people may want to think twice about where to spend their gaming dollars for themselves or their children.

Saturday, February 02, 2008

PMA in Las Vegas: new cameras cover old ground

The groundhog poked his nose out of his house and apparently he did not like what he saw — or maybe he did. I get confused. Whatever happened with the U.S. weather rodent, whether he went back in his hole or came out and danced, his priests declared six more weeks of winter. This came as little surprise to people in the U.S. who have been enduring generally awful weather across the country.

In Las Vegas the weather was bright and sunny if a tad on the cold side causing the Las Vegans to wear mittens and the rest of us to laugh at them. I was in Las Vegas for the PMA show &ndash the photography industry conference. This year the show took place at the same time as the Shot Show a gun show. Get it?

The gun lovers were in the North Halls and the camera lovers were in the South Halls. I would go into the differences between the two different groups but that way leads to trouble. I will put it this way, in most cases it was pretty clear what doors people would be using and with whom it might be wise to avoid spirited discussion. Cab drivers made a point to ascertain excactly what kinds of shots you were likely to take, snapshots or pot shots, before they let loose with any opinions.

I’m in the process of writing up the PMA show for TechWatch but I can tell you this right now.Hold off on buying a camera. There is some really good stuff coming down the pike, or will be as soon as the camera manufacturers can get their heads around the idea that consumers expect really new features and capabilities — not incremental upgrades before they’ll abandon their cameras that are doing the job for new cameras that will do the job better. Some of the trends you’ll be seeing include:

* 14.2 MP cameras in all ranges because that’s the point at which digital meets the capabilities of 35mm film
* Low end digital SLR cameras with through the LCD view finding. (Yes, that is kind of a contradiction in terms but camera users have come to like composing through the LCD)
* Tiltable LCDs for DSLRs
* HD video for DSCs

So, why wait? If you bought a camera three or four years ago, there might not be enough of an advantage for you move up. Do you really need a few more megapixels? And, yes, through the LCD view finding is cool, but haven’t you already adjusted back to through the lens? Personally, I’m holding out for a new camera with a full frame sensor that doesn’t require me to take out a loan to buy it or a bionic arm to hold it up for any length of time.

In the DSC range, I could go for a DSC with really good video. I don’t have to have HD — it takes up too much storage space — but I would like to have one small camera for snapshots and video. I keep getting lectures from well-intentioned manufacturers who tell me good video and good still photography can not co-exist in one sensor.  With the videos I shoot, however, I’m not sure quality is so important. It’s just important that I have the camera with me. For the most part products at PMA seemed to represent upgrades to the products that came out last year. Give it six months and see what the companies have to offer. Frankly, I’m going to wait until next year ... maybe.