Press Releases

The Workstation Market Takes Another Sizeable Step Forward in Q4’09, says Jon Peddie Research

2010-03-01T15:45:40Z

TIBURON, Calif- March 1, 2010 -- Jon Peddie Research (JPR) reports robust results for the workstation and professional graphics markets in Q4'09, as the industry successfully plowed ahead, anxious to put the misery of late 2008 and early 2009 further behind. The multimedia and graphics research firm has completed its analysis of the workstation and professional graphics markets and reports that the quarter saw another solid round of gains, building off the upward trend started in Q3. All told, the industry shipped 716.9 thousand workstations in the fourth quarter, resulting in an 11.2% sequential increase.

Table 1 Total workstation market (worldwide, in K units) (Source: Jon Peddie Research)
Workstation shipments	Q3CY08	Q4CY08	Q1CY09	Q2CY09	Q3CY09	Q4CY09
Total (K units)	854.2	764.3	576.7	602.1	644.6	716.9

Even better, workstation ASPs finally managed a modest, but very perceptible 3.6% uptick in Q4, a gain the firm traces in part to improved confidence and looser purse strings, and in part simply as the not-quite-equal reaction to the more dramatic deflation in prices seen in the immediate aftermath of the economic downturn. Healthier ASPs meant the industry got to enjoy the relatively rare event of seeing units outpaced by revenue, which rose an estimated 15.2% sequentially to $1.43 billion.

Dell manages to climb back up to parity with HP

In Q3'09, HP overtook Dell in workstation unit volume, staking its claim as the new workstation market leader. Clearly, Dell hadn't taken its demotion lightly, instead digging in its heels to raise its fourth quarter unit share back up 1.5 points, in the process moving back into a virtual dead heat with HP.

The professional graphics market unexpectedly hot in Q4'09

Simply put, the professional graphics market in the fourth quarter posted results significantly hotter than expected, with units (mobiles included) up 53.3% year-over-year and revenue (add-in cards only) close behind at 41.1%.

The market for professional graphics parallels the workstation market, with the former's performance often providing an effective leading indicator for the latter's. And that bodes well for workstations in 2010. Because if the numbers for workstations in Q1'10 look anything like those posted by professional graphics in Q4'09, they should exceed all but the most optimistic of OEMs' expectations.

Astounding year-to-year growth in PC graphics; Quarter-to-quarter also beats expectations

2010-01-26T17:10:42Z

TIBURON, CA-January 26, 2010 - Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the industry's research and consulting firm for graphics and multimedia, announced today its estimated graphics chip shipments and suppliers' market shares for Q4'09.

Figures for the year 2009 came in above expectations with a 14% year to year growth, an amazing comeback, in this year of retrenching and recession

Table 1: Growth rates from 2002 to 2011
	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Total Graphics Chips:	180.6	217.1	239.0	269.4	316.5	351.7	373.0	425.4	544.0	600.1
Annual percentage growth	20.6%	20.2%	10.1%	12.7%	17.5%	11.1%	6.1%	14.0%	27.9%	10.3%

Intel was the leader in Q4'09, elevated by Atom sales for netbooks, as well as strong growth in the desktop segment. AMD gained in the notebook integrated segment, but lost some market share in discrete in both the desktop and notebook segments due to constraints in 40nm supply. Nvidia picked up a little share overall. Nvidia's increases came primarily in desktop discretes, while slipping in desktop and notebook integrated.

Vendor	This Quarter Market share	last Quarter Market share	Unit Growth Qtr-Qtr	This quarter last year Market share	Growth Yr-Y
AMD	19.9%	20.1%	13.6%	19.3%	91.5%
Intel	55.2%	53.6%	17.9%	47.7%	114.7%
Nvidia	24.3%	25.3%	10.2%	30.6%	47.3%
Matrox	0.0%	0.0%	66.7%	0.1%	-16.7%
SiS	0.0%	0.3%	-81.8%	1.1%	-92.5%
VIA/S3	0.6%	0.7%	-3.9%	1.2%	-9.5%
Total	100.0%	100.0%	14.7%	100.0%	85.7%

AMD reported revenue of $427 million from their graphics segment for the quarter, up 40% sequentially. AMD's graphics segment reported an operating income of $53 million, a substantial improvement from the prior quarter.

Intel reported revenue from chipset and other revenue of $1.877 billion in Q4.

Nvidia's quarter, which straddles the calendar quarters reported revenues of $903 million for their Fiscal Q3'10 which is from August to the end of October. Their next quarter ends in January.

A new category - CIG
Q4'09 saw the first shipments of a new category, the CPU-integrated graphics - CIG. With the advent of new CPUs with integrated or embedded graphics, we will see a rapid decline in shipments of traditional chip-set graphics or IGPs (integrated graphics processors.)

Pricing and Availability
The Q4'09 edition of Jon Peddie Research's Market Watch is available now in both electronic and hard copy editions, and can be purchased for $995. Included with this report is an Excel workbook with the data used to create the charts, the charts themselves, and supplemental information. The annual subscription price for JPR's Market Watch is $3,500 and includes four quarterly issues. Full subscribers to JPR services receive Tech Watch (the company's bi-weekly report) and a copy of Market Watch as part of their subscription. For information about purchasing Market Watch, please call 415/435-9368 or visit the Jon Peddie Research website at http://www.jonpeddie.com.

New JPR Study Demystifies Social Networks: What They Are, How They Work, How to Exploit Them

2009-12-10T16:18:17Z

Report shows how fast, efficient and inexpensive Social Networking is changing consumers’ behavior and offers insight into new opportunities to reach them

TIBURON, CA-December10, 2009-Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the industry's research and consulting firm for multimedia, today announced a new study on the Social Networking phenomenon and shows readers how to benefit from participating in it. The Social Web and its Implications: How “going social” changes everything about the Internet illuminates the subject in ways that inform both strategic and tactical users, and provides guideposts for further exploration and exploitation by the reader.

“This is not just another study on how to use Twitter and Facebook for marketing. Instead, we hope to instill a broad understanding of the entire landscape,” said Dr. Jon Peddie, president of Jon Peddie Research.

Word of mouth has proven to be the best sales tool, and social networks are the fastest and most far-reaching word of mouth mechanism ever seen. The growth of social networking has been astounding, demonstrating a pent- up demand for fast, efficient and inexpensive way of communicating and interacting. It also demonstrates a higher degree of technical savvy by users than was originally thought. Both are important signs for marketing and manufacturing organizations that want to know their customers better and tap into social pools to leverage recommendations, address criticism and head off rumors.

“The Social Web is not a fad; it is a fundamental shift in how humans communicate, interact, collaborate, create, inform themselves, prioritize, organize, buy, sell and play. It is your customers, your friends, your family, your employees, your constituents, your shareholders, and, like it or not, you,” said Brad DeGraf, the report’s author. “The word ‘viral’ hardly existed in our vocabulary before social media. Now it’s in constant use without the slightest reference to illness,”

The Social Web and its Implications: How “going social” changes everything about the Internet provides the following:

A high-level survey of the major societal and economic effects, the key concepts and impacts, the major players.
A thorough inventory of the full range of major behaviors/uses.
A broad collection of useful statistics that help answer some frequently-asked questions.
Detailed analysis of one representative application, Twitter.
Guidance for further exploration and research, hyperlinked liberally.

JPR uses the term “social media” broadly in order to include all related applications, trends, and practices, e.g. social networking, collaboration, user-generated content, and analytics. The report uses the term “social Web” relatively interchangeably with “social media” to emphasize the human element.

Why care?

Short answer: if you don’t master it, your competition will. Social media infants like Twitter and Facebook are the little furry creatures running around the feet of dinosaurs eating their eggs. Craigslist, for instance, is commonly blamed for the demise of newspapers, replacing their $100 billion in classified ad revenue with its reported $100 million revenue according to the Classified Intelligence Report by media consulting firm Advanced Interactive Media Group.

Social media represents a transformative new channel to listen to and communicate with customers, stakeholders, media, peers, and other influencers. Conversations are taking place about your company, product, and service, right now, with or without you. Social media provides rapidly evolving channels through which new classes of “influencers” communicate.

The Workstation Market Regaining its Health, but the Road to a Full Recovery Won’t be Short

2009-12-04T17:43:14Z

The Workstation Market Regaining its Health, but the Road to a Full Recovery Won’t be Short: Jon Peddie Research

TIBURON, Calif— December 3, 2009. So far, the second half of 2009 for the workstation market is proceeding according to the script Jon Peddie Research (JPR) had written several quarters ago. A recovery is surely taking hold, but rather than the fast and furious type, it’s shaping up more as the slow and steady variety.

Q3’09 wasn’t a gangbuster quarter for the industry, but then it wasn’t expected to be. What JPR did predict was that the quarter would affirm two things: one, that the market did indeed bottom during the first half of 2009, and two, that the second quarter’s modest uptick wasn’t an aberration. And on those counts, the third quarter of 2009 came through, delivering modestly better results than did Q2. All told, the industry shipped 644.6 thousand workstations, resulting in a 7.1% sequential increase over the second quarter (and a more moderate 24.5% year-over-year decline).

(Source: Jon Peddie Research)
Workstation shipments	Q2CY08	Q3CY08	Q4CY08	Q1CY09	Q2CY09	Q3CY09
Total (K units)	867.4	854.2	764.3	576.7	602.1	644.6

Table 1 Total workstation market (worldwide, in K units)

The third quarter’s growth was of course welcome, but certainly doesn’t signal an imminent return to the robust market levels of 2007 and 2008. Rather than making a dramatic stride forward, it instead marked one small step on what’s more likely a prolonged road to recovery. The way it’s panning out, the climb back up will take a lot longer than did the fall down.

HP stakes its claim as the top workstation provider/p>

It was just a matter of time. One look at the market share trend lines, and it wasn’t a stretch to envision HP some day overtaking Dell as the volume leader in workstation market. In just a few short years, HP had climbed from a distant second in the market into a virtual dead heat with the long-time leader. But in the third quarter, HP jumped to a 40.3% market share, in the process pulling away from Dell (at 37.5%) to mark the first time (in the firm’s records) HP has held clear control as the volume leader.

It’s been a dramatic reversal of fortunes. Looking back five years, Dell looked poised to dominate the workstation market by a wide margin. But then triggered (in part) by its long-standing strategy to stick exclusively with Intel rather than exploit upstart AMD’s surging workstation/server platform, Dell saw its workstation share steadily drop to a low of 37.7%.

When Intel finally bounced back, so did Dell, though without quite the same gusto. Because even though Dell had regained its footing, HP had been pressing its foot firmly on the gas and coming up fast in Dell’s rear-view mirror. And finally in the third quarter, HP surged past to claim the position of sole market leader, in the process pushing Dell’s share back down to its historical low.

PC Gaming Hardware Forecast to Reach $27 Billion in 2010

2009-11-19T17:02:40Z

PC game market exits the recession in time for the holidays

TIBURON, CA- November 19, 2009 -Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the industry's research and consulting firm for graphics and multimedia, today announced the market forecast for PC gaming hardware, and the results are better than previously expected.

The worldwide PC gaming hardware market (systems, accessories, and upgrades) is forecasted to gain $1.2 billion for 2009, which is a 5.9% increase versus 2008 (from $20.07 to $21.26 billion). The increase is due to higher than anticipated consumer demand for Enthusiast, Performance, and Mainstream hardware influenced by the ability to play video games ranging from casual to hardcore simulations.

Due to significant growth across all major markets the worldwide PC gaming hardware market is expected to skyrocket 30% in 2010. Senior Video Game Industry Analyst at JPR, Ted Pollak, credits this growth to a number of factors. “The largest influence on the high forecasted growth rate is due to purchasing delays for systems and upgrades in 2008/2009 as consumers circled the wagons and took a conservative position on discretionary spending. A recovering economy, processing advancements, and higher quality gaming offerings will all contribute to a healthy year for PC gaming hardware in 2010.”

Year	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012
Total PC Gaming Hardware Market	$20,076	$21,260	$27,617	$32,749	$34,760

“The PC gaming market continues to be the high growth, and technological leader for home entertainment. With Windows 7 and DirectX 11, advanced and exciting physics, and stereovision capabilities, the PC platform is far and away the most advanced,” noted Jon Peddie President of Jon Peddie Research. “And, the PC has the added advantage that when not used for gaming, it can be used for more practical purposes, and/or as a media center.”

JPR uses a complex methodology to pinpoint the true global TAM (Total Addressable Market) for PC gaming hardware, which is no easy feat given the multi-dimensional nature of personal computers. The result is a report series which is the most accurate in the world and available by segment (Enthusiast, Performance, and Mainstream) for companies that are not focused on all levels of PC gaming. The report covers all major regions and provides detail for the top 37 countries.

The anticipated rebound for the graphics add-in board market materializes in Q3’09

2009-11-16T14:00:54Z

The bounce lagged the broader graphics market, but very welcome nonetheless

TIBURON, CA – November 12, 2009 — Better late than never. While a market rebound for graphics add-in boards (AIBs) didn’t occur in sync with the broader graphics hardware markets, it did eventually materialize in the third quarter, reports Jon Peddie Research.

The market (along with most others) had suffered a major drop in Q4’08. Volume flattened in the first quarter as drained-down inventories regained some lost weight, and Q2’09 mercifully showed demand stabilizing and more evidence the market had bottomed.

What was in store for the third quarter? The firm had been expecting a bounce in the second half, with the first signs to be manifested in Q3’09. And to the relief of many, that’s how the story unfolded. The quarter saw 20.3 million graphics cards shipped, up 21.0% sequentially, a particularly robust number considering the two major vendors were on the tail end of product cycles. Even in the context of a year-over-year measure, the quarter’s 7.2% decline was significantly more moderate than the firm had seen in the previous quarters.

Graphics AIB unit history
Graphics AIB market results	Q1’08	Q2’08	Q3’08	Q4’08	Q1’09	Q2’09	Q3’09
Units	24.40	19.78	21.92	15.20	16.32	16.81	20.34
Growth - year-to-year	18.1%	-6.7%	-15.2%	-42.7%	-33.1%	-15.0%	-7.2%

The AIB market gets its bounce, albeit delayed

The market’s rebound turned out a bit belated, as the broader market for graphics hardware had already seen its bounce. In Q2’09, overall shipments for graphics — including integrated graphics processors (IGPs) — rose at a substantial clip, up 31% sequentially and an even more impressive 4% year-over-year. Yet AIB shipments in the same quarter were generally flat from Q1.

The reason? The firm attributed the dynamic to more hesitant buyers with tighter wallets in Q2. As frugal buyers cautiously made their way back to the marketplace, they tended to opt more for lower-performance — but essentially free — IGPs over add-in boards. But thanks to improved consumer confidence, more AIBs left retail shelves (and PC assembly lines) in the third-quarter.

Not surprisingly, the battle lines for Nvidia vs. AMD relatively quiet in the third quarter

A quiet before a coming storm, the third quarter proved to be a virtual stalemate in the Nvidia vs. AMD war, with the latter managing just a one point gain in unit share. By contrast, Q4’09 promises to be anything but quiet. AMD’s got a brand new set of graphics cards ready for the holiday (and Windows 7) season. Its launch of the Evergreen (Radeon HD 5000 series) generation has equipped the company with strong offerings for the Enthusiast and Performance segments, ready to entice somewhat-more-optimistic consumers.

Nvidia, however, will have to get by this holiday season with previous-generation products, as it hustles to get products based on its ambitious Fermi generation ready for (what appears to be) the first quarter of 2010. The one potential snag for AMD is the broadly reported, less-than-stellar ramp of 40 nm product coming out of TSMC. Nvidia’s relying on 40 nm as well, but should TSMC’s struggle with yield be limited to the fourth quarter, and not Q1’10, then it will be AMD that will primarily suffer, not Nvidia.

PC Graphics Market Soars Over 21% says Jon Peddie Research

2009-10-27T14:03:23Z

Market already exceeded last year's highs -- Happy holidays ahead for graphics processor sales

Third quarter shipments of graphics processors jumped an amazing 21.2% over Q2, which was already a great quarter clearly signaling the holidays will be robust for PCs and the industry in general.

AMD showed the biggest jump in quarter-to-quarter growth at 30% followed by Intel at 21%.

Intel shipped the most parts at 63 million, over twice as many as its nearest competitor Nvidia.

“A total of 119.45 million units were shipped in the third quarter, exceeding the record 111 million units that shipped in Q3, 2008,” said Dr. Jon Peddie, president of Jon Peddie Research in Tiburon CA. “So the market has caught up with, and exceeded, last year’s highs. The crash of fall 2008 is now behind us.”

Vendor	This Quarter Market share	Last Quarter Market share	Growth Qtr-Qtr	This quarter last year Market share	Growth Yr-Yr
AMD	19.8%	18.4%	30.2%	20.6%	3.1%
Intel	52.7%	51.1%	25.2%	49.4%	14.6%
Nvidia	24.9%	29.2%	3.3%	27.8%	-4.0%
Matrox	0.0%	0.1%	-50.8%	0.1%	-70.0%
SiS	1.1%	0.4%	209.3%	1.2%	80.0%
VIA/S3	1.5%	0.8%	116.2%	0.9%	465.3%
Total	100.0%	100.0%	21.2%	100.0%	11.9%

Once again a record was broken and the growth from Q2 to Q3 was the largest in nine years.

	2001	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Change Q2 to Q3	-0.48%	18.62%	16.07%	16.20%	11.59%	12.52%	11.58%	17.84%	21.24%

Portables lead the way

Notebook shipments led the market again topping out at almost 56 million units with discrete graphics processors jumping more than 36% over Q2 indicating what the OEMs think will be the hot sellers in Q4.

Peddie notes that, “Integrated graphics in notebooks, which includes the popular netbooks, increased 27% over Q2 — a great gain but less than discrete. Netbooks will remain popular but they will not have the high market share they had during the recession when they were just introduced. Rather, consumers are expected to “buy up” in the next quarter.

“The channel is full and the products in it will have to be sold off before the OEMs and their resellers take a chance of seeing the channel becoming overstuffed. That suggests that while Q4 is typically a good quarter for PCs, the quarter-to-quarter growth in Q4 may not be as robust as Q3. Graphics are a great leading indicator,” Peddie said, “The graphics go in before the PC is built or shipped.

The workstation market finds a bottom in Q2’09, reports Jon Peddie Research

2009-09-02T13:13:03Z

Leading indicators point to better times ahead

Hoping to erase some bad memories from the previous two quarters’ market results, vendors of workstations and professional graphics hardware had a lot riding on the second quarter of 2009. Jon Peddie Research reports that, considering the doom and gloom pervading global markets since last fall, Q2’09 managed to deliver on expectations that were modest, yet critical to providing an indication of the market’s direction.

Q1’09 had showed more of the carnage that engulfed global markets in the fourth quarter of ‘08. But mercifully, as the research firm had expected, Q2’09 showed some much-needed consistency in the market, adding more evidence that demand has bottomed and a recovery is in the offing. All told, the second quarter saw 602 thousand workstations shipped, up 4.4% sequentially and down 31% year over year, the latter figure presenting a drop consistent with Q1.

(Source: Jon Peddie Research)
Workstation market results	Q1CY08	Q2CY08	Q3CY08	Q4CY08	Q1CY09	Q2CY09
Units (K)	822.6	867.4	854.2	764.3	576.7	602.1
Total ($M)	$1,891.0	$1,864.3	$1,831.7	$1,579.8	$1,107.7	$1,161.8

And looking forward, the quarter’s market results offered up some nuggets of data that — in combination with improving macroeconomic global indicators — affirm the firm’s outlook for a cautious, yet discernible, move back up starting in the second half. ASPs held strong, while the related market for professional graphics revealed the first hints of a rebound.

A bright spot: ASPs stay firm in Q2’09

In the face of the deflationary pressure triggered by the slashing of IT budgets, ASPs had fallen by 7.1% in Q1’09. But the second quarter showed ASPs staying relatively flat (+0.5%), thanks to stabilizing demand and the introduction of a new generation of workstation platform technology (Nehalem). Stable demand might not typically be cause for celebration, but in the context of very atypical recent history, it’s a critical first step toward a return to the robust market conditions of ’07 and early ’08.

Professional graphics market results foreshadow improving conditions

Responsible for over $1.1 billion in revenue (2008, not counting mobile shipments), the market for professional graphics hardware is significant in its own right. But it’s also of interest as a revealing leading indicator, since it supplies one of the key differentiating components in today’s workstation platform. Whichever direction the results of the professional graphics market head, the workstation market’s numbers often fall in line behind it.

And in Q2’09, the direction appeared up, as the industry shipped 825 thousand units (including mobiles). That volume represented a similar year-over-year loss as seen the previous two quarters, but resulted in a fairly optimistic sequential growth of 16.2%, a number significantly higher than what could simply be attributed to cyclical conditions.

AMD takes more overall share in Q2’09 ... but Nvidia not exactly suffering

AMD’s FirePro line for professionals is on its best footing in years, a position reflected in professional graphics market results in Q4’08 and Q1’09. In those two preceding quarters, AMD managed bumps in overall unit share (add-in cards and mobiles) of 8.8% and 12.1%, respectively. Thanks to a jump in professional mobile GPU shipments, the company continued in the right direction in Q2’09, adding another few points of share to climb to 14.4%.

But while AMD’s numbers are clearly healthier in the context of mobile shipments, to say Nvidia is suffering would be off the mark. Because, if we were to remove mobile units from the picture and focus on add-in cards only, the story reads differently. In the face of AMD’s market incursion, market leader Nvidia actually raised its share of units and revenue in Q2’09 to 89.4% and 90.3%, respectively (from 87.6% and 89.3%).

Jon Peddie Research more positives than negatives in Q2’09 for the graphics add-in board marke

2009-08-26T09:00:58Z

No big rebound, but Q2’09 shows more – and very welcome – signs of stability

TIBURON, CA – August 26, 2009 — In a vibrant economy, the prospect of market stability isn’t an exciting one. It might even be downright disappointing. But given how bad global markets had tanked recently — both in reality and perception — signs of stability are very welcome and making many in technology markets breathe a collective sigh of relief.

Jon Peddie Research reports that the market for graphics add-in boards (AIBs) demonstrated some much-needed firmness in Q2’09, adding more evidence that demand has bottomed and a recovery is in the offing. The quarter saw 16.81 million graphics cards shipped, up 3.0% sequentially and down 15% year over year (YoY), the latter figure presenting a substantially more moderate drop than the previous two quarters.

Desktop AIB market results	Q4'07	Q1’08	Q2’08	Q3’08	Q4’08	Q1’09	Q2’09
Units	26.51	24.40	19.78	21.92	15.20	16.32	16.81
Growth - year-to-year	25.9%	18.1%	-6.7%	-15.2%	-42.7%	-33.1%	-15.0%

Table 14 Graphics AIB unit history, by quarter

After draining down inventories in the “shock and awe” of Q4’08 and Q1’09, AIB inventories simply couldn’t go much lower. So AIB purchases at a minimum had to at least track actual consumption, and perhaps even rise a bit higher, so as to add some weight to anemic inventories. Add in the notion that buyers were finally sticking their heads up out of the foxholes — perhaps not dropping wads of cash, but at least buying something — and the quarter for discrete AIBs proved at least steady, if not robust.

Not surprisingly, graphics product mix shifts downstream ... especially to IGPs

But while they certainly will take solace in the thought that results could have been far worse, many stakeholders in the AIB market might feel a bit cheated in Q2’09, as the sister market for motherboard integrated graphics processors (IGPs) did profit from that much-hoped-for big bounce in volume (up 4%, year-over-year, as previously reported by JPR). At least for now, AIBs aren’t seeing the same extent in recovery that IGPs are.

Overall, buyers of graphics were back out en masse, but the overall graphics market’s growth figures didn’t translate as strongly to the AIB segment. They might have, had buyers been less price-conscious. But price-conscious buyers were, and that meant purchases of both “free” IGPs and low-priced AIBs got the bump in volume, not so much higher-priced AIBs, or AIB units overall.

The quarter finally shows some AMD headway in market share

Since the summer of ’08, AMD’s Radeon-brand graphics AIBs began giving market leader Nvidia a much tougher run for its money. Despite its renewed competitiveness, however, AMD hadn’t yet seen a sustained growth in market share, as Nvidia adamantly refused to give up any volume, aggressively cutting prices as necessary to avoid a loss in share.

But as prices settled out and AMD got its RV770 GPU (and subsequent derivatives RV730, RV790, RV740) in place across the Radeon line-up, the company did finally see a meaningful tick up in market position. JPR’s tabulations show AMD’s unit share rising from 31% in the first quarter to 35% in Q2’09, with Nvidia declining four points to 64%.

The CG Market will have a CAGR of 8% to 2013 Says Jon Peddie Research

2009-07-29T18:37:35Z

Industry has had 16.5% growth for past 28 years

TIBURON, CA—July 29, 2009--The computer graphics industry has enjoyed almost non-stop growth since it was established in the late 1970s. Today, computer graphics hardware and software (not counting services, maintenance and other aspects) are worth $68 billion – that’s a mind boggling average growth rate of 16.5% for 28 years! Despite the recession, or maybe because of it, the market for all types of applications and hardware used in the computer graphics industry is growing at a prodigious rate and offers opportunities in many segments as companies invest today for the consumers of tomorrow.

Hardware will continue to get better, and more units will be sold, and due to the benefits of Moore’s Law prices will be stable. This empowers the industry and contributes to the democratization of all segments allowing people who were shut out in the past to participate, and that, in addition to bringing great new developments, increases the overall market.

As a result of the expansion of the market, more people will be buying computer graphics software programs and we will see the development of traditional segments like CAD/CAM expand as new design approaches in automotive, aerospace, and architecture are brought forth. Visualization, a market that has been almost dormant for the past few years is poised now for great expansion.

Software for making movies, computer games, high-style products, and simulations of products and activities too expensive or too dangerous to test in reality will exploit the amazing realism and real time capabilities of today’s and tomorrow’s CG software.

The demand for programmers, artists, scientists, and designers who can use and exploit these new programs and their associated hardware accelerators will not subside. The economic recession has caused a slow down but it’s going to look like a small bump in the road by 2013.

We are seeing new opportunities growing out of more mainstream applications for the web and consumer applications. The web is growing as a distribution medium for graphics content which in turn encourages people to pick up the tools, learn then, create content for pleasure, and even look for jobs in the field. What used to be a very closed society of experts is opening up.

Given these trends, we see the rate of growth continuing to grow.

SIGGRAPH Graphics Pioneers Encourage the Graphics Community to Help Make it Right

2009-07-28T16:53:03Z

Sponsors Make-It-Right Foundation to Build Energy-Efficient Houses in New Orleans for Survivors of Hurricane Katrina

SAN FRANCISCO, CA – July 28, 2009 – As the graphics community prepares for the annual SIGGRAPH conference and exhibition in New Orleans August 3-6, the SIGGRAPH Graphics Pioneers are asking the creative community to help survivors of Hurricane Katrina with monetary donations to the Make it Right Foundation.

The SIGGRAPH Graphics Pioneers, an organization formed by scientists, engineers, artists, and industry professionals active in computer graphics since the inception of SIGGRAPH, have adopted a house being built by the Make It Right Foundation.

There is no minimum amount required, donors are asked to give what they can afford. Together, let’s help Make it Right again.

Donate directly to the Make it Right Foundation, The House that SIGGRAPH Pioneers Built.

Join the SIGGRAPH Graphics Pioneers Facebook Group and encourage your friends to donate to the cause, too.

Make It Right, a collaboration between actor Brad Pitt, Graft Architects, Cherokee Gives Back and William McDonough + Partners was founded in 2007 to help rebuild the New Orleans Lower 9th Ward, an area that was completely wiped out during Hurricane Katrina in 2005. The Make It Right Foundation is committed to building 150 energy efficient, solar powered, storm resistant homes in the 9th Ward of New Orleans, and the SIGGRAPH Graphics Pioneers want to help.

"We have had wonderful experiences in New Orleans for the SIGGRAPH conference,” said Kathleen Maher, vice president, Jon Peddie Research and a member of the SIGGRAPH Graphics Pioneers. “However, the devastation Katrina left in its wake is unfathomable, and unless you’ve seen it firsthand, it’s really hard to imagine. The SIGGRAPH Pioneers encourage the graphics community to band together and help support the victims of Hurricane Katrina by helping New Orleans return to its former glory,” continues Maher. “Every dollar counts to help ‘Make it Right’ for those families still trying to recover from such the devastation.”

Progress on the Make It Right house will be announced at the SIGGRAPH Graphics Pioneers dinner, however, the group will continue fundraising after the conference.

Jon Peddie Research is an active supporter of this project and will recognize significant donors on their site www.jonpeddie.com. To kick off the donation drive, Jon Peddie Research will be donating $200 from every market report it sells during the month of August 2009.

SIGGRAPH Graphics Pioneers Contact:
Kathleen Maher
Kathleen@jonpeddie.com
415-435-9368

Media Contact:
Kelly Dove
KG|KD Public Relations
Kdove@kgkdpr.com
512-394-8789

AMD soars in Q2’09, Intel and Nvidia also show great gains

2009-07-27T18:40:51Z

Best Q2 qtr-qtr change in nine years

TIBURON, CA- Monday, July 27, 2009-Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the industry's research and consulting firm for graphics and multimedia, today announced estimated graphics shipments and supplier market share for the second calendar quarter of 2009.

Graphics chips (GPUs and IGPs) are the leading indicator of the PC market. The GPUs go into a system before it becomes a PC and gets into the hands of the customer.

After the channel stopped ordering GPUs and depleted inventory in anticipation of a long drawn out worldwide recession in Q3 and Q4 of 2008, expectations were hopeful, if not high that Q1’09 would change for the better. In fact, Q1 showed improvement but it was less than expected, or hoped. Instead, Q2 was a very good quarter for vendors – counter to normal seasonality – but then these are hardly normal times. It’s clear the channel is gearing up for what it thinks is going to be a robust back-to-school season.

Traditionally, Q1 to Q2 sales decline due to summer vacations and preparation for the fall. This year preparation seems to have gotten off to an early start.

Table 1: Growth rates from Q1 to Q2 from 2003 to 2009
	8 yr avg.	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009
Average change Q1 to Q2	0.83%	-5.42%	-5.18%	1.63%	-4.22%	3.13%	-0.49%	31.29%

TOTAL MARKET

Year to year things were great. Shipments jumped up to 98.3 million units, up 31.3% from last quarter -- and most everyone fared well.

Table 2: Total Graphics Chip Market for Q2'09
Vendor	This quarter	Market share	Last quarter	Market share	Growth Qtr-Qtr	A year ago
AMD	18.13	18.4%	12.81	17.1%	41.5%	17.11
Intel	50.30	51.2%	37.20	49.7%	35.2%	44.67
Nvidia	28.74	29.2%	23.26	31.1%	23.6%	29.63
Matrox	0.06	0.1%	0.07	0.1%	-6.2%	0.10
SiS	0.40	0.4%	0.70	0.9%	-42.9%	1.90
VIA/S3	0.67	0.7%	0.84	1.1%	-19.5%	1.00
Total	98.30	100.0%	74.87	100.0%	31.3%	94.42

Things probably aren't going to get back to the normal seasonality till Q3 or Q4 this year, and we won't hit the levels of 2008 until 2010. However, people still need to buy things. Old computers will fail, new employees will be hired and need machines, and of course software upgrades like Windows 7 will be coming along.

We are still predicting an upturn in the PC market in Q3 and Q4 and in particular for the graphics market (which serves not just PCs but aerospace and automotive, industrial systems, medical systems, kiosks and POS). We are optimistic because these are seasonally the best quarters.

In Q4 there will be two new operating systems: Apple's Snow Leopard, and Windows 7 which will help stimulate new purchases in the holiday season
ATI & Nvidia will be introducing new 40nm designs with higher performance, GPU-compute, and surprisingly aggressive prices.
The worst is over for inventories run down and the channel is now restocking for back-to-school, and the holiday madness.
And yes, there is pent up demand.
We still believe there will be an impact from the stimulus programs worldwide

We're just finalizing our Q2'09 Market Watch report and will have all the details on this quarter (and every other one back to Q1'04) for our subscribers first thing tomorrow.

Jon Peddie Research announces the release of the 2009 Digital Video Software Market Study

2009-07-27T16:38:24Z

The Digital Video market shows early effects of worldwide economic forces

TIBURON, CA- Monday, July 27, 2009-Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the industry's research and consulting firm for graphics and multimedia, announced the release of the Digital Video Software Market Study. This new, stand alone Market Study is part of the Digital Content Creation series, which includes the 3D Modeling and Animation Market Studio for 2009.

This study looks at the market for digital video software and includes software used for video editing, special effects, and compositing. It covers the software used by professionals and consumers. The digital video software market reached $1.5 billion in 2008. The market will remain flat in 2009 but it will start to recover in 2010 and see growth through 2013. JPR estimates the digital video market will grow to $2.3 billion by 2013 for a CAGR of 9% for the years 2007 to 2013.

The digital video market is dominated by three major companies, Adobe, Apple, and Avid. In this difficult economy, the leaders have solidified their position

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Worldwide forecast for Digital Video software ($M US dollars) CAGR-9%, 2007-2013	1,480	1,485	1,474	1,533	1,763	2,028	2,332

The digital video market depends on several industries that have been affected by worldwide economic forces: the advertising industry, the movie industry, and broadcast television. The advertising industry has been under pressure for some time as the market redefines itself in terms of the Internet. In addition the problems of the automotive industry, a major source of revenue for the advertising industry, have made a bad problem worse. The entertainment industry has also been hit by the writer's strike and broadcast TV has a declining viewership.

There are bright spots however. The corporate digital video market did well up to the last quarter when world economic problems intruded into all markets all over the world. The consumer market was also slow to respond to economic factors and did not really react until the first quarter of 2008.

"The high-end professional market has suffered the most in this economic downturn. Customers for digital video software are tightening their belts and holding off on upgrades. Vendors are also losing some customers to less expensive desktop based systems. In addition, consumers have made it very clear that they are not interested in difficult to use video editing software. The years 2008 and 2009 are going to be remembered as particularly difficult in the DCC markets and especially digital video. However, we do see growth picking up in 2010 and accelerating though 2013. A CAGR of 9% for the periods between 2007-2013 is actually quite respectable," says Kathleen Maher, Vice President Jon Peddie Research and the author of the DCC report series.

Graphics Take a Hit in ‘09 - Come Blazing Back in 2010 According to Jon Peddie Research

2009-07-16T14:23:37Z

The Worst is Over

TIBURON, CA-July 16, 2009-Jon Peddie Research (JPR), the industry's research and consulting firm for graphics and multimedia, today announced estimated global graphics chip shipments for 2009 will see the worst ever year-over-year drop in shipments. The decrease in shipments for 2009 will be even worse than the 2000-20001 recession. However, 2010 promises an amazing comeback.

	2002	2003	2004	2005	2006	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011
Total Graphics Chips:	180.6	217.1	239.0	269.4	316.5	351.7	373.0	328.4	398.9	446.8
Annual percentage growth	20.6%	20.2%	10.1%	12.7%	17.5%	11.1%	6.1%	-12.0%	21.5%	12.0%

Table 1: Growth rates from 2002 to 2011

Graphics chip shipments are a leading market indicator - the graphics chips go to the ODMs and OEMs, which then build and ship PCs.

Taking together our data, interviews with suppliers, and world economic forecast models, we believe the worst is over and Q3 will show recovery leading all the way through 2010, subject to seasonal adjustments.

Portable devices such as notebooks, laptops, and netbooks will be the strong, but they will not overwhelm desktops which are still the preferred choice of platform for the power users and professionals.

Architectural changes like Intel's Nehalem and new product introductions from AMD, ATI, Intel, and Nvidia are going to be disruptive to the status quo and traditional market share of the suppliers. The continued expansion and development of heterogeneous computing and GPU compute will stimulate growth in 2010 enabled by Apple's and Microsoft's new operating systems.

New programming capabilities using OpenCL, DirectX 11, and Nvidia's CUDA architecture will remove barriers to the exploitation of the GPU as a serious, economical, and powerful co-processor in all level of PCs.

The net result is a new PC environment starting in Q3, and this new environment will have a beneficial impact on computing in 2010 onward.

About Jon Peddie Research
Dr. Jon Peddie has been active in the graphics and multimedia fields for more than 30 years. Jon Peddie Research is a technically oriented multimedia and graphics research and consulting firm. Based in Tiburon, California. JPR provides consulting, research, and other specialized services to technology companies in a variety of fields including graphics development, multimedia for professional applications and consumer electronics, high-end computing, and Internet-access product development. Jon Peddie's Market Watch is a quarterly report focused on the market activity of PC graphics controllers for notebook and desktop computing.

The 3D Modeling and Animation Market Shows Resilience says New Study by Jon Peddie Research

2009-06-18T19:46:25Z

Despite recession people keep playing games and going to movies and new markets for 3D modeling and animation are opening up

TIBURON, CA- JUNE 18, 2009-Jon Peddie Research (JPR) the industry's research and consulting firm for graphics and multimedia, has just released a new report on the 3D modeling and animation market is poised for growth. The same software that is used primarily film/TV production and game development is also being put to work for rendering and visualization in architecture, manufacture, and science and is on the verge of major breakthroughs due to demand from new vertical markets as well as hobbyist and consumer sectors.

Like all others, the 3DM&A industry is going through a period of contraction and consolidation. However, as difficult as it is for all participants, the JPR study points out that this is often a prelude to growth.

	2007	2008	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013
Worldwide forecast 3D Modeling and Animation ($M US dollars) CAGR – 6.8%, 2007 to 2013	219	237	221	238	262.05	293.49	328.71

The 3D Modeling and Animation market includes software tools that are used for TV and movie special effects, creating content for games, product design, and for the web. Over the years the industry has grown steadily, but the 3DM&A tools are still expensive and used primarily by professionals.

Mainstream Markets Open Up for 3DM&A

Beyond traditional industries, new markets are also opening up for more casual users of 3D modeling and animation tools, defying barriers posed by high cost and complexity. Free 3DM&A tools are becoming available and millions of copies are being downloaded every year suggesting a pent-up demand for easy-to-use 3D tools. In addition, there is a hard core of hobbyists and casual users who are using 3D tools even though the learning curve is steep. New distribution models are just now opening up including online worlds, YouTube, MyToons, the Daz communities, and more. By the end of this decade, new growth will come in mainstream markets, the report says.

Professional Markets Trim

In the meantime, the DCC market in general and the 3D segment specifically have suffered as industries where 3D tools are used but are not core to their businesses tighten their belts and look for the inessential markets they can cut from their sales and marketing budgets. Some of the areas that have been hardest hit include the advertising industry, marketing, visualization for architecture, science and research, and manufacturing. .

“Ironically, although the 3D modeling and animation market has been one of relatively slow growth, it has been more stable than other graphics markets during this economic downturn,” says JPR analyst Kathleen Maher, author of the new report. “The market did not grow as fast but it did not decline as dramatically as other industries involved in digital content creation. In fact, 2008 was a record year for the market.”

This report includes data on the number of users (casual and professional) market share for the companies, the market segments they participate in, and geographic distribution.