2012 CAD Report

Jon Peddie Research is pleased to inform you about our latest release, the 2012 market study on the CAD industry.
The study is 80 pages, with 50 figures and tablets that describe the CAD market and industry dynamics. The report sells for US$ 5,000 with a 10% discount subscribers to JPR’s bi-weekly industry report, Tech Watch.
Abstract:
The CAD market, one of the largest and most established software markets is dynamic and growing in new directions. There are several important trends affecting the growth of the market including:

  • Worldwide all markets slowed down during the economic recession of 2008-2009 but the engines are starting up again. Asia and India barely slowed and new markets are joining them including Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.
  • In the near term JPR sees slowed growth in several markets as economic uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe bedevil the recovery. The hardest hit market will be AEC Architecture, Engineering, and Construction).
  • New platforms and new distribution models will lead the market. CAD has long been a high-value product and CAD companies have jealously protected their high margins. The new opportunities opened up by cloud computing, apps, and tablets give CAD companies an opening to “have it all,” high volume, low cost consumer-ish apps along with new ways to offer boutique services to valued subscription customers.

Leaner, more efficient companies are ready to rebuild after the recession years.  The companies are looking at ways to retool their businesses for more efficiency.

The CAD report includes market share data among the major CAD vendors, it provides geographic data, and takes a closer look at the larger sub-segments: MCAD, AEC, Process & Power, and GIS. Also included in the report are market forecasts to 2016 and a discussion of the trends that have influenced our forecast. As a bonus, companies that buy the CAD report will have access to online company profiles.

Jon Peddie Research is pleased to inform you about our latest release, the 2012 market study on the CAD industry.
The study is 80 pages, with 50 figures and tablets that describe the CAD market and industry dynamics. The report sells for US$ 5,000 with a 10% discount subscribers to JPR’s bi-weekly industry report, Tech Watch.
Abstract:
The CAD market, one of the largest and most established software markets is dynamic and growing in new directions. There are several important trends affecting the growth of the market including:

  • Worldwide all markets slowed down during the economic recession of 2008-2009 but the engines are starting up again. Asia and India barely slowed and new markets are joining them including Latin America, Africa, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East.
  • In the near term JPR sees slowed growth in several markets as economic uncertainty in the U.S. and Europe bedevil the recovery. The hardest hit market will be AEC Architecture, Engineering, and Construction).
  • New platforms and new distribution models will lead the market. CAD has long been a high-value product and CAD companies have jealously protected their high margins. The new opportunities opened up by cloud computing, apps, and tablets give CAD companies an opening to “have it all,” high volume, low cost consumer-ish apps along with new ways to offer boutique services to valued subscription customers.

Leaner, more efficient companies are ready to rebuild after the recession years.  The companies are looking at ways to retool their businesses for more efficiency.

The CAD report includes market share data among the major CAD vendors, it provides geographic data, and takes a closer look at the larger sub-segments: MCAD, AEC, Process & Power, and GIS. Also included in the report are market forecasts to 2016 and a discussion of the trends that have influenced our forecast. As a bonus, companies that buy the CAD report will have access to online company profiles.

Table of Contents

  • Introduction
      • Executive Summary
      • A summary of findings
    • CAD Market Overview
    • Trends 2011
      • It’s the economy
      • New tools
      • Multi-CAD and low-cost CAD
      • New opportunities, even in established markets
      • The Cloud and Apps
      • Real World Capture
    • CAD Market Overview
      • Getting focus
    • Through the recession, the rich got richer.
  • CAD companies, their third party partners, and distribution
      • The third party satellites
    • The importance of third party partners
      • The third party benefits
      • CAD expands
    • Market Share Leaders
    • 3D: Shifts in emphasis
    • Low cost and free 2D gains ground in 2010
      • A condensed list of ODA members
    • The Architectural market; a move to new models
      • BIM leaders see improved fortunes hope for a brighter future
      • The architectural landscape.
      • The metrology revolution
      • The users: 2D, 3D, and both
      • Geographies
  • Manufacturing CAD
    • The U.S. educational crisis in science and engineering
      • AEC: Architecture, Engineering, and Construction
    • Process and Power
      • Consolidation in Process & Power
  • GIS
      • Is Google GIS?
    • Summary
  • The Mac market
      • Mac3D
    • Autodesk on the Mac, a growing ecosphere
      • Sketching and drawing
      • Tablet programs for CAD
      • Summary
      • Forecasts
      • Economic indicators.
    • Forecast Conclusion

Table of Figures

  • Figure 1: The CAD leaders: Autodesk, Dassault Systèmes, PTC, and Siemens PLM have a disproportionate percentage of market share compared to their smaller competitors.
  • Figure 2: The total CAD market is estimated to be $7 billion in 2011 The long recession has hit the smaller players and there is more shake out on the way
  • Figure 4: A breakdown of the major segments considered in this report. In this chart the segments are apportioned according to revenue. The MCAD segments including Automotive, Aerospace, Fabrication and Assembly (F&A), and Consumer Goods, represent the highest share of the market revenue.
  • Figure 4: Market share for the top CAD vendors by revenue. The total CAD market reached $6 billion in 2010 and will reach $7 billion in 2011
  • Figure 5: 3D has grown in the CAD market . In 2010 CAD revenues are split about 60:40 between 2D and 3D and in fact, we even seen new entrants on the scene with a strong focus on 2D. Figure 6: The 3D CAD market recovered faster from the recession which affected the CAD industry most dramatically in 2008-2009.
  • Figure 7: The 2D market for CAD is heavily skewed toward Autodesk and the larger vendors. The market for 2D CAD programs in 2010 was $2 billion. The smaller competitors including Ashlar-Vellum, Auto-des-Sys, DataCAD, Graebert, IMSI, Versacad, etc. There are new companies on the scene including CorelCAD, DraftSight, and new products from IMSI. In addition, there are 2D users who work within organizations using 2D and 3D.
  • Figure 8: As low cost and free CAD packages arrive, the gulf between 2D CAD and 3D CAD widens in terms of revenue. Customers are willing to spend more for 3D CAD products in order to develop new processes.
  • Figure 9: A Revit structural model of a parking garage in Miami. Courtesy of Buro Happold
  • Figure 10: An exterior view of the Center for Creativity BIM model created in Bentley Architecture. (Source: Bentley, Cadalyst Magazine)
  • Figure 11: The BIM market leaders combine data management with CAD data. JPR puts the BIM market at $1 billion in 2010-2011
  • Figure 12: Excel Engineering demonstrates scanned imagery combined with 3D model in Revit (Source: Excel Engineering)
  • Figure 13: A comparison of salaries shows CAD drafters to be relatively low paid compared to Professional Engineers and Architects
  • Figure 14: A look at the number of respondents to polls suggests that for many people, the job of CAD drafter is a stepping stone. The majority of respondents have not been in the job for a long time. They may be ready to move up in their profession or to move on to another type of work.
  • Figure 15: The number of CAD licenses dropped off in 2009 as companies downsized and failed to renew licenses or buy new CAD seats. There was good recovery in 2010 but 2011 has seen a slowdown again in response to economic trends. This chart includes estimates for the total CAD installed base as well as new buyers and upgrades for the year. The total number of people using CAD in a year includes the installed base plus the new buyers.
  • Figure 16: Strong representation by European CAD companies has changed the picture of worldwide CAD revenues
  • Figure 17: To get a larger view of the world market for CAD we broke out the regions by country using our own segmentation, world economic data, as well as company information where available.
  • Figure 18: The CAD market in Asia and emerging markets is growing faster than the western markets. Growth in the Americas will be driven by Latin America, especially Brazil but also the other Latin American countries including Chile, Peru, and Columbia. This shift is happening rapidly.
  • Figure 19: The market share among leading mechanical CAD providers. The manufacturing market is the largest segment of CAD. MCAD market reached $3 billion. The market is lopsided with a few strong leaders and numerous smaller competitors and vendors of add-on products
  • Figure 20: The manufacturing industry is dominated by large, enterprises. However, it is supported by an ecosystem of contractors and small companies building products or every description
  • Figure 20: Science and engineering degrees have picked up after hitting a trough in 2003-2004. U.S. students are returning to the sciences and engineering and foreign students studying in are also quietly returning to U.S. universities. Meanwhile, China’s determined push into science and engineering continues and strengthens. (Source: US National Science Foundation)
  • Figure 21: The USF uses journal articles as an indication of competitiveness and actual output
  • Figure 22: The AEC industry is a superset of disciplines in CAD. Autodesk has a long history in the AEC industry and leads the market but there are many companies with very strong customer bases. Companies like Nemetschek and Bentley have helped lead the AEC market to BIM. In addition there are several influential small companies, which do well In the AEC market with more modest revenues. In the past three years we have seen the use of SketchUp climb in the market, however, it is used in conjunction with other CAD products. There are also a lot of low cost and free CAD products in use in the architectural market.
  • Figure 23: The major markets of AEC
  • Figure 24: The process and power industry is complex combining data management with specialized CAD functions such as piping, collision detection, and architecture.
  • Figure 25: In the U.S., the sources of power are distributed. (Source: The US Energy Information Administration)
  • Figure 26: The US EIA (Energy Information Administration) expects energy demands to rise dramatically in India and China. The other emerging economies are catching up while the OECD partners (Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development) levels off
  • Figure 27: According to Daratech’s survey, software tools are difficult to learn and to become proficient using. (Source Daratech 2D vsD Study)
  • Figure 28: The GIS market is dominated by ESRI but other players have carved out healthy subsets within the broad range of GIS related markets. (Source: JPR with supplementary data
  • Figure 29: C3 generates maps from aerial photography. (Source: C3)
  • Figure 30: The market share for CAD programs on the Mac
  • Figure 31: Autodesk is building a portfolio of apps and tools for tablets including the 123D line which spans PCs, tablets, and Macs. The company is eager to get the tools out there to see what their customers will do and what they want
  • Figure 32: CAD follows worldwide economic trends. The return to growth in the CAD software market is likely to be slow in through 2013 as problems in the US and European economies hold back growth. At least that’s the way it looks near the end of 2011. Growth will come from China and India, and emerging markets. We believe growth will pick up after 2012
  • Figure 33: The picture varies for the CAD industries. The AEC market is up slightly due to international projects and a bit of a natural rebound as a result of necessary building and maintenance. Thanks to emerging markets and hard work on the part of manufacturing companies to recover efficiencies, the manufacturing market is return to growth relatively quickly. Process & Power, and Civil Engineering represent large, long-term projects and are less volatile. The GIS market is on the upswing and both GIS and Civil will be positively affected by the need for infrastructure improvements in the west and new projects in the east and emerging economies.
  • Figure 34: For some, the number of housing starts in the U.S. is an indicator of the health of the economy. Vendors in the architectural communities will hasten to add that housing is a small part of the overall picture and not reflective of the CAD industry. As a result of the problems in the U.S. housing market, there has been plenty of inventory on the market and little need for new houses. (Source: U.S. Census Bureau, McGraw Hill)
  • Figure 35: Commercial building has been more stable for US businesses. One reason for this is that the US companies in this segment have projects all over the world and they are finding work in Asia and regions of growth while Europe and the US wait for better times.
  • Figure 36: Off a cliff. Construction in Europe has fallen off even more sharply than it has in the U.S. Large U.S. companies have been bolstered by International projects. (Source: Eurostat)
  • Figure 38: ENR surveys the leading companies in the construction industry including Designers, Contractors, and Sub-contractors. This chart tracks the answers from all groups. It was published in September, 2011. They were asked about their confidence about business in the coming months and years. Most do not see improvement coming for about a year. At the end of
  • Figure 37: Another view from EuroStat: they are seeing all areas of buildings drop off in 2010
  • Figure 39: the shape of recovery. The AEC market is taking a while to work its way back. Growth is slow, but it is steady.
  • Figure 40: Data from the OICA for 2010 shows almost universal growth for automobile manufacturing worldwide. Egypt is a notable exception for obvious reasons.
  • Figure 39: Data from EuroStat shows manufacturing to be on the upswing and in fact, it did not turn down as sharply in Europe as it did in the U.S
  • Figure 41: The MCAD market has shown resiliency thanks to world markets and we expect the market to grow through 2013

Table of Tables

  • Table 1: The major CAD companies have staked out specific areas of expertise
  • Table 2: A rough comparison of the vertical organization of the major CAD companies reveals their areas of emphasis. Note: PTC is in the process of re-architecting its product line into “apps” but we expect the product groups to be similar
  • Table 3: GIS covers a broad range of human activity. What they all have in common is the need to understand and communicate geographical data combined with related information
  • Table 4: Apple does not call its professional class machines workstations but they are the match to Windows based workstations on the market. (Source: compiled by JPR, Apple data)
  • Table 5: CAD programs for the Mac. There is a wide range of products available
  • Table 6: Autodesk has been steadily bringing products to the Mac (Source: Autodesk)
  • Table 7: A list of the current CAD-related software for tablets. It’s already very clear that this is the only year it will be practical to create a list of apps for CAD because the list will be too long in another 12 months time. (Source: JPR)