The workstation market on a roll with another record in Q3’16

After a long stretch of up-and-down quarters — never too bearish but never too bullish — Q2'16 broke the workstation market out of the doldrums. Setting a quarterly record for units, it was the best quarter we'd seen in a while. But that record didn't last long ... three months, to be exact.

As inspiring a quarter as Q2'16 was, Q3'16 was even better.  With 1.135 million units shipped, the market set another record, breaking the 1.1 million mark for the first time. Year-over-year, the market grew at a robust 9.3%, while the less revealing sequential measure (for this cyclical market) was +3.4%.

HP and Dell in a dead heat for workstation unit volume ... literally, this time

On the vendor front, JPR's been stating for a while now that for all intents and purposes HP and Dell had been in a dead heat in the race for market leadership. Describing Q3, the same can again be said, but this time without the "intents and purposes" disclaimer. The two each shipped 35.4% of all units, and any difference  is in the margin of error for guidance. Given that margin then, Dell and HP were literally tied for shipments in the third quarter.

HP and Dell can't ignore Lenovo, however, as the #3 vendor has gained steadily (albeit not dramatically) over the last seven years. Lenovo has harnessed the growth in the hottest region, China, to drive its share up, landing at a near-high of 15.0% in Q3'16. 

Workstation vendor market shares for Q3'16

 

Market for discrete professional GPUs climbs, but at more modest pace than workstations

The market for discrete, professional GPUs performed well in the third quarter of 2016, but not as well as the workstation market it serves. All told, the duopoly of AMD and Nvidia shipped around 1.27 million discrete professional-brand GPUs, representing 5.9% growth year over year and a modest 1.8% decline sequentially.

 


The JPR Workstation Report Market Quarterly for Q3'16 delves into comprehensive depth across all slices of the workstation and professional GPU market, including:

  • Complete breakdown of traditional workstation market by units and revenue, and across product classes (mobile/entry/mid/high), platforms (mobile/entry/mid/high) and geography
  • Workstation market forecast
  • Complete breakdown of workstation GPU market by units and revenue, and across product classes
  • Breakdown of workstation market by vertical
  • Analysis and sizing of the impact of Apple platforms versus Windows/Linux workstations
  • Analysis and sizing of the impact of emerging workstation virtualization (in its multiple forms)
  • Analysis and sizing the impact of Intel's CPU-integrated graphics
  • Methodology
    • Some – but not all - white-box coverage
    • Navigating to new content: bold PDF bookmarks and yellow highlighted headings
  •  The workstation market on a roll with another record in Q3'16
    • Workstation ASPs and revenue
    • Workstation shares by machine class
      • Mobiles growing slowly/ steadily, but desksides still rule the workstation market
        • Workstation market by vertical
        • HP and Dell in a dead heat for workstation unit volume... literally this time
        • Vendor penetration by market segment
  • Apple's MacPro
  • Estimating Mac Pro shipments: the expected surge at launch, followed by a decline, and now starting to settle out
  • Virtual Workstations
  • Today, Intel stands virtually alone as CPU supplier to the workstation industry
    • Intel's push of Xeon brand into single-socket, entery-class workstations paying off
    • AMD's traveled a winding road in workstations, one that led to an absence in CPUs
    • A future for AMD workstations with APUs? Zen?
    • Single vs. multi-socket CPU
  • Windows dominates, with Linux holding minority share
  • Tier 1 distribution of workstations by geography
    • Mobile vs. deskside distribution by global geo
    • Dell is claiming back its ownership of the U.S. market
    • Dell makes strides in EMEA as well
    • Dell and HP share lead in APexJ, while Lenovo's share steadily grows
    • HP leads in Japan, while "home team" NEC and Dell duke it out for #2
    • ROW vendor breakdown similar to that of the U.S
    • EMEA and APexJ: breakdowns by sub-region
    • China remains the primary engine for APexJ growth, with Lenovo the primary beneficiary
  • Full-year calendar 2015 results for workstations
  • Professional GPU market follows workstation market upward
    • Discrete workstation GPU ASPs firm
    • Another quarter of virtually no change in Nvidia vs. AMD GPU market battle
    • Estimating FirePro shipments to Apple
  • Professional graphics hardware market breakdown by product class
  • GPU segment big picture: 2D continues inevitable decline, 3D holds steady, and — lately — a marked, sustained tick up for mobiles
    • High-end and mid-range contribute around two thirds of GPU add-in card revenue
    • Nvidia maintains dominant hold on 2D, Entry 3D and mobile segments
  • Full-year calendar 2015 results for professional graphics hardware
  • NEW for Q4'15: Integrated vs. discrete GPUs in workstations 
  • Appendix A: Workstation vendor shares per EMEA sub-region

Tables and figures

Tables

  • Table 1 Total workstation market revenue (in $M)
  • Table 2 Q1'16 characteristics of desktop workstation classes
  • Table 3 History of workstation unit share by vendor 
  • Table 4 Historical share of Windows and Linux in x86 based workstations (Apple platforms not included) 
  • Table 5 Total workstations shipped by year (units and revenue)
  • Table 6 Yearly workstation ASPs (in dollars) 
  • Table 7 Growth (loss) of Tier 1 vendors’ unit shares 
  • Table 8 Worldwide shipments of professional graphics (K units, including mobiles) 
  • Table 10 Where Apple's new FirePro SKUs stack up against existing "Southern Islands" SKUs 
  • Table 9 Worldwide quarterly revenue of professional graphics add-in cards ($M, no mobiles) 
  • Table 11 Professional graphics market share history by vendor (units) 
  • Table 12 Professional graphics add-in card (no mobiles) revenue history by vendor
  • Table 13 Professional graphics hardware classes and price bands 
  • Table 14 Professional graphics hardware, yearly totals 
  • Table 15 Professional graphics add-in card ASPs, yearly 

Figures

  • Figure 1 Workstation ASPs over time
  • Figure 2 History of overall workstation unit distribution, by class 
  • Figure 3 Unlike broader PC market, deskbound workstations outsell mobiles (on average) by almost 3:1 
  • Figure 4 Dell stabilized, then took back some share lost to HP .. but lately, positions for the two relatively stable 
  • Figure 5 Shares of mobile workstation units, by vendor 
  • Figure 6 Shares of Entry class workstation units, by vendor 
  • Figure 7 Shares of Mid-range workstation units, by vendor 
  • Figure 8 Estimated and hypothetical share of Apple in Windows/Linux/OS-X deskside workstation market
  • Figure 9 Intel shipments into Tier 1 workstation market by processor (unit share of Intel platform by processor) 
  • Figure 10 The rise and fall of Opteron in the workstation platform
  • Figure 11 Share of dual-capable (though not necessarily dual-populated) workstations as a percentage of all deskbound systems 
  • Figure 12 While the share of 2S-capable workstations is in decline, the 2nd CPU attach rate is relatively stable
  • Figure 13 Geographic distribution (by unit shipments) over time 
  • Figure 14 Tier 1 vendor shares of U.S. over time
  • Figure 15 Tier 1 vendor shares of EMEA over time
  • Figure 16 Tier 1 vendor shares of Asia/Pac (excluding Japan) over time 
  • Figure 17 Tier 1 vendor shares of Japan region time 
  • Figure 18 Tier 1 vendor shares of Rest of World (ROW) region over time 
  • Figure 19 EMEA breakdown by sub-region 
  • Figure 20 Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) breakdown by sub-region 
  • Figure 21 China sub-region, breakout by vendor 
  • Figure 22 India sub-region, breakout by vendor
  • Figure 23 Rest of APexJ sub-region, breakout by vendor
  • Figure 24 Overall yearly workstation unit share by vendor
  • Figure 25 Worldwide shipments of professional graphics (K units, including mobiles)
  • Figure 26 Professional graphics card ASPs, by vendor over time 
  • Figure 27 Professional graphics units, by segment
  • Figure 28 AMD's mix of FirePro GPU products over time 
  • Figure 29 Estimated share of professional graphics units shipping in "Winux" workstations 
  • Figure 30 2D in slow decline and mobiles (mostly) flat, as 3D cards have taken the lion's share of market growth over the past several years 
  • Figure 31 Professional graphics add-in card revenue 
  • Figure 32 Vendor unit share history: mid-range 3D add-in card segment
  • Figure 33 Vendor shares of combined High + Ultra-high professional segment over time 
  • Figure 34 Vendor unit share history: mobile professional graphics segment
  • Figure 35 Vendor unit share history: Entry 3D add-in card segment 
  • Figure 37 Vendor unit share history: professional 2D add-in card segment 
  • Figure 38 Workstation market forecast 2013 - 2018 (units) 
  • Figure 39 Workstation market revenue forecast 2013 - 2018 ($)
  • Figure 40 Germany sub-region, breakout by vendor 
  • Figure 41 UK/Ireland sub-region, breakout by vendor 
  • Figure 42 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) sub-region, breakout by vendor 
  • Figure 43 Nordics (Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden) sub-region, breakout by vendor 
  • Figure 44 Italy sub-region, breakout by vendor 
  • Figure 45 Alps (Switzerland, Austria) sub-region, breakout by vendor 
  • Figure 46 France sub-region, breakout by vendor 
  • Figure 47 BeNeLux sub-region, breakout by vendor 
  • Figure 48 Iberia (Spain, Portugal) sub-region, breakout by vendor 
  • Figure 49 Middle East and Africa (MEA) sub-region, breakout by vendor
  • Figure 50 Greece sub-region, breakout by vendor