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Jon Peddie Research (JPR) has responded to the recent dramatic reports by Canalys, Gartner, and IDC showing a precipitous drop in Q3 2022 PC shipments. In addition, JPR is providing guidance on the impact to graphics chip and AIB shipments.
Jon Peddie, president and founder of JPR, said, “Our advice to clients has been consistent since 2020: The pandemic boom was not a surge in demand brought about by real growth in the market. The PC market is now correcting itself after a period of extraordinary growth spurred on by spending from an overwhelming surge of users working from home.”
Peddie continued, “People were forced to work at home in 2020 and 2021, and many needed equipment. As a result, PC sales surged. Those people have what they need, and some of them are going back to the office. They don't need new PCs, and won't for three to five years. So, we are back to the nominal growth of the PC market, which was, and will be again after two quarters’ adjustment, tracking GNP growth.”
Supply chain disruptions have now eased, but high inventory is a problem. In addition, TSMC is expected to see its fab capacity utilization trending downward in the next six months as order cuts by fabless clients begin to take a toll on the foundry.
Finally, the AIB market was also buffeted by a surge in late 2021 from crypto miners. This period of readjustment is expected to have a short-term impact on the irrational exuberance of the pandemic buying era. However, it does not indicate anything other than the end of an anomaly in sales, meaning the market is resilient and well-positioned to remain strong going forward.
JPR provides a quarterly Market Watch report focused on PC graphics processor market activity, offering current in-depth information about this industry.