I’d like to think it was our enthusiastic forecasts and long-term
interest in the Entertainment PC that’s attracted all the current
interest in the category—in fact, it’s just become a category
within the last year—but I fear it’s all Microsoft’s doing,
again. I do all the work, they get the credit—sigh, such
is life as a soothsayer.
Fujitsu’s C90EW EPC
I think it was 1998 when we started talking about the multimedia
black box. We then evolved that into the Entertainment PC, which
now includes as a subset Microsoft’s Media Center PC, which is
getting all the attention in the press.
Gateway’s
901 EPC
Gateway wants us to know about their new, stylish 901 Media Center,
Fujitsu has just announced their FMV-Deskpower C90EW with Microsoft’s
Media Center software, while InterVideo has announced their InterVideo
Home Theater software suite, and so has CyberLink with their new
PowerVCR II 3.0 Deluxe. And behind most of these things we find
ATI and Hauppauge TV tuners, with Nvidia and Emuzed filling in
the cracks.
The EPC is clearly going to be the product of the holidays, and
it’s safe to say that 2004 will be the year of the Entertainment
PC—you can tell your grandchildren you were there when it
happened.
There are three platforms of EPCs: the non-MicrosoftÐbased systems
running Linux (smallest segment), the Microsoft OS without Media
Center software systems (largest segment), and the new Media Center
Microsoft XP systems (fastest growing segment).
VWB’s
MediaReady 4000—this is a PC?
There are also two hardware categories: mobile and fixed. Fixed
is the name we’ve given to what is also called desktop because
we don’t think the name desktop is appropriate for these EPCs,
since many of them will be placed in the entertainment areas of
people’s homes near the television.
One of the things that helped push the sales of this new/old
category was the smart positioning by Microsoft and its first
year (2002) partners to position it not as a CE device, but as
a PC with CE device features. It consolidated most of the functions
and, best of all, gave just one remote to deal with. Some people
think the EPC should look more like a PC. Why? To trick the user?
It’s not a CE device, doesn’t boot up like a CE device, and sure
as hell isn’t as stable or reliable as a CE device—it’s a
PC, damn it, get over it. Nonetheless, we admit some of the new
boxes do look a lot like CE devices.
It also doesn’t cost like a CE device, although this year we’re
going to test the market elasticity of the category as prices
are cut almost by half from last year. But, regardless of price,
this category will not be embraced by everyone, and any forecast
that suggests it will should be thrown away immediately.
VIA’s EPC reference design—is this a PC?
There’s
also the issue of noise. Only one company, VIA, has a reference
design that offers a noiseless system. We just decommissioned
a TiVo here at Mt. Tiburon Testing Labs because its disks were
so noisy. The TiVo with a built-in tuner also got so hot it had
a fan in it (which failed and had to be replaced). So the EPC
builders have work to do to get the heat and the noise out.
But the box itself, my beloved EPS, is at risk of being smothered
by Digital Darwinism as it molts right before our eyes from a
media center to a media distributor. Already the lines (if there
ever were any) are blurring and companies are offering Wi-Fi digital
distribution systems that have EPC qualities under them. We’re
just testing a new ATI offering for their All-in-Wonder series
that adds Wi-Fi to the mix so the tuner in the main computer (i.e.,
EPC) can be used remotely by other, less-equipped PCs. The system
is actually a disk distributor, so it could theoretically send
music files and/or photos to other systems. SnapStream has similar
products and concepts.
This is the next trend in EPCs and we’ll have to come up with
a name for it—EPC distribution system. It still leaves the
opportunity/hole with regard to salvaging the consumer’s existing
CE inventory and products based on concepts like Mediabolic’s
that tie CE devices to an EPC.
The salvaging of existing CE devices points up another issue,
investment. What the PC industry is going to have to learn, perhaps
the hard way, is that consumers won’t replace their hardware every
two years like they do their PCs. And, if there is no trailing
edge as I’ve suggested, then the EPC makers need to build a new
business model, fast.
So we’re seeing the emergence of a new product category. It will
behave a lot all others—too many suppliers, a surge in sales
that will bring in more suppliers, rapid price cuts, and finally
consolidation to a few suppliers. In the process we’ll be inundated
with EPCs of every size, color, and functionality. They’ll proliferate
like rabbits and you’ll have to be careful to avoid stepping on
one. And this year many of them are going to be under the Christmas
tree.