The workstation market maintains its pace in Q1’17

Given their common foundation in silicon and system technologies, it’s tempting to lump workstations in with their corporate and consumer PC siblings. But equating the two markets will lead to very erroneous conclusions, as the workstation’s users, demands, applications and markets exhibit very different characteristics than those of mainstream PCs.

The workstation does not suffer from the forces that have been dragging on the PC market as of late. PC buyers today find it tougher to justify replacement purchases, while being enticed to use other devices as their primary means of connectivity and personal computing. Neither is true for the bulk of workstation buyers, as each new generation of products continues to return positive ROI, improving productivity that could not be achieved with the previous generation nor any alternative device. No, workstations aren’t PCs, and vendors are justifiably more confident to hang their hats on the workstation business.

Posting year-over-year growth of 22.5% in the first quarter of 2017, the workstation market looks to be sustaining its robust march forward. Almost always down from the historically strong fourth quarter, the first quarter is not always the best bellwether to judge overall market health. Given that disclaimer, however, Q1'17 results indicate a quarter in line with the generally bullish run the market's experienced in recent quarters. 

The triumvirate of Dell, HP and Lenovo contribute the lion’s share of workstation shipments, along with a large secondary tier of suppliers, including Fujitsu and NEC. Dell and HP continue to sustain their joint leadership, while Lenovo has made steady gains over time, particularly in their home market, China. 
Providing the most comprehensive look at the workstation market available, the JPR Workstation Report Market Quarterly for Q1’17 delves into breadth and depth across all slices of the workstation and professional GPU market, including:

  • Complete breakdown of traditional workstation market by units and revenue, and across product classes (mobile/entry/mid/high), platforms (mobile/entry/mid/high) and geography
  • Workstation market forecast
  • Complete breakdown of workstation GPU market by units and revenue, and across product classes
  • Breakdown of workstation market by vertical
  • Analysis and sizing of the impact of Apple platforms versus Windows/Linux workstations
  • Analysis and sizing of the impact of emerging workstation virtualization (in its multiple forms)
  • Analysis and sizing the impact of Intel's CPU-integrated graphics
  • Navigating this report                                                                                                                   
  • Methodology                                                                                                                                 
    • Some – but not all - white-box coverage
  • Market appears to maintain its upward pace in Q1’17 … though context matters                      
    • Workstation ASPs and revenue
    • Workstation shares by machine class
    • Mobiles growing slowly and steadily, but desksides still rule the workstation market
  • Workstation market by vertical                                                                                                
  • Dell and HP tick up modestly in Q1’17, at Lenovo’s expense                                                 
    • Vendor penetration by market segment
  • Apple's Mac Pro and MacBook Pro                                                                                       
    • Estimating Mac Pro shipments                                                                                           
    • Estimating MacBook Pro shipments
  • Virtual workstations                                                                                                               
  • Today, Intel stands virtually alone as CPU supplier to the workstation industry                  
    • Intel pushes Xeon into both single-socket desktops and mobile workstations
    • AMD's traveled a winding road in workstations, one that had led to an absence in CPUs
    • A future for AMD in workstations with APUs? Zen?
    • Single versus multi-socket CPU
  • Windows dominates, with Linux holding minority share                                                      
  • Tier 1 distribution of workstations by geography                                                                  
    • Mobile vs  deskside distribution by global geo
    • Dell steps back in front in the U S in Q1’17                                                                    
    • HP ticks up in EMEA
    • APexJ’s typical Q1 performance: HP up, Lenovo Down and Dell steady
    • HP steady in Japan in Q1’17, with Dell picking up share from fading NEC
    • ROW vendor breakdown similar to that of the U S
  • EMEA breakdowns by sub-region
    • Mobile vs  deskside: EMEA sub-region breakdown
  • Tier 1 APexJ breakdown by sub-region
    • China has been the engine behind APexJ growth, with Lenovo the primary beneficiary
    • Mobile vs  desksides: APexJ sub-region breakdown
  • Full-year calendar 2016 results for workstations                                                                       
  • Market for discrete professional GPUs continues steady climb
    • Discrete workstation GPU ASPs
    • Amazingly consistent: it’s now three straight quarters of stalemate in Nvidia vs  AMD workstation GPU market battle
  • Professional graphics hardware market breakdown by product class
    • High-end and mid-range contribute around two thirds of GPU add-in card revenue
    • Nvidia’s hold on 2D, entry and mobile segments remain steady
  • Full-year calendar 2016 results for discrete workstation GPUs                                                 
  • Integrated vs  discrete GPUs in workstations                                                                          
  • Outlook on the workstation market                                                                                            
  • Appendix A: Workstation vendor shares per EMEA sub-region                                               

Tables
Table 1 Total workstation market revenue (in $M)                                                                          
Table 2 Typical characteristics of desktop workstation classes in Q1’17                                        
Table 3 Workstation unit sales by vertical/application                                                                    
Table 4 History of workstation unit share by vendor                                                                       
Table 5 History of workstation unit share by vendor (Tier 1 only)                                                  
Table 6 Historical share of Windows and Linux in x86 based workstations (Apple platforms not included)                                                                                                                          
Table 7 Total workstations shipped by year (units and revenue)                                                   
Table 8 Yearly workstation ASPs (in dollars)                                                                                
Table 9 Growth (loss) of Tier 1 vendors’ units                                                                              
Table 10 Worldwide shipments of discrete workstation GPUs (K units, including mobiles)        
Table 11 Worldwide quarterly revenue of professional graphics add-in cards ($M, no mobiles) Table 12 Professional discrete (mobile and add-in card) GPU market share history by vendor (units)                                                                                                                                      
Table 13 Professional graphics add-in card (no mobiles) revenue history by vendor                    
Table 14 Professional graphics hardware classes and price bands                                                 
Table 15 Discrete professional GPU units shipped, yearly totals                                                  
Table 16 Discrete professional GPU units shipped, yearly growth by segment                            
Table 17 Discrete professional GPU add-in card ASPs (no mobiles), yearly                                
Table 18 Discrete professional GPU add-in card ASPs (no mobiles), yearly                          

 

 Figures
Figure 2 Workstation ASPs over time                                                                                              
Figure 3 History of overall workstation unit distribution, by class                                                  
Figure 4 Deskside workstations currently outsell mobiles 2:1                                                         
Figure 5 Workstation unit sales by vertical/application                                                                   
Figure 6 HP and Dell vie for leadership in the workstation market                                                 
Figure 7 Shares of mobile workstation units, by vendor                                                                
Figure 8 Shares of Entry class workstation units, by vendor                                                         
Figure 9 Shares of Mid-range workstation units, by vendor                                                          
Figure 10 Estimated shipments of deskside Mac Pros and Mac Book Pros                                   
Figure 11 Estimated share of Apple when Mac Pro included in deskside workstation market     
Figure 11 Estimated share of Apple when MacBook Pro included in mobile workstation market                                                                                                                                  
Figure 12 Where virtual workstations fit in the SBC (server-based computing) landscape          
Figure 13 Number of virtual workstations "shipped" in 2016, relative to traditional client side (estimated)                                                                                                                        
Figure 14 Intel shipments into Tier 1 workstation market by processor                                        
Figure 15 The rise and fall of Opteron in the workstation platform                                               
Figure 16 Share of dual-capable (though not necessarily dual-populated) workstations as a percentage of all deskbound systems                                                                              
Figure 17 While the share of 2S-capable workstations is in decline, the 2nd CPU attach rate is relatively stable                                                                                                                
Figure 18 Geographic distribution (by unit shipments) over time                                                 
Figure 19 Geographic distribution of Mobile workstation sales, by region (unit share)                 
Figure 20 Geographic distribution of deskside workstation sales, by region (unit share)             
Figure 21 Unit growth, by platform and region (average of four previous quarters' 5-year CAGR)                                                                                                                              
Figure 22 Tier 1 vendor shares of U S  over time                                                                          
Figure 23 Tier 1 vendor shares of EMEA over time                                                                      
Figure 24 Tier 1 vendor shares of Asia/Pac (excluding Japan) over time                                      
Figure 25 Tier 1 vendor shares of Japan region time                                                                     
Figure 26 Tier 1 vendor shares of Rest of World (ROW) region over time                                   
Figure 27 EMEA breakdown by sub-region                                                                                  
Figure 28 Geographic distribution of mobile workstation sales, by EMEA sub-region (unit share)                                                                                                                                
Figure 29 Geographic distribution of deskside workstation sales, by EMEA sub-region (unit share)                                                                                                                                      
Figure 30 Unit growth, by platform and EMEA sub-region (average of four previous quarters' 5- year CAGR)                                                                                                                    
Figure 31 Asia/Pacific (excluding Japan) breakdown by sub-region (Tier 1 shipments only)     Figure 32 China sub-region, Tier 1 unit share by vendor                                             
Figure 33 India sub-region, Tier 1 unit share by vendor                                                                
Figure 34 Rest of APexJ sub-region, Tier 1 unit share by vendor                                                 
Figure 35 Geographic distribution of Mobile workstation sales, by APexJ sub-region (unit share)                                                                                                                                  
Figure 36 Geographic distribution of Deskside workstation sales, by APexJ sub-region (unit share)                                                                                                                                      
Figure 37 APexJ workstation unit growth by sub-region and platform (average of past four quarters’ 4-year CAGR)                                                                                                         
Figure 38 Overall yearly workstation unit share by vendor                                                           
Figure 39 Worldwide shipments of discrete workstation GPUs (K units, including mobiles)      
Figure 40 Professional graphics card ASPs, by vendor over time                                                 
Figure 41 History of overall professional GPU product mix (units, all segments)                        
Figure 42 Professional graphics add-in card revenue (normalized to retail levels, no mobiles)    49 Figure 43 Vendor unit share history: mid-range 3D add-in card segment       
Figure 44 Vendor shares of combined High/Ultra-high professional segment over time              
Figure 45 Vendor unit share history: mobile professional graphics segment                                
Figure 46 Vendor unit share history: Entry 3D add-in card segment                                             
Figure 47 Vendor unit share history: professional 2D add-in card segment                                  
Figure 48 AMD's mix of FirePro GPU products over time                                                            
Figure 49 Nvidia's mix of Quadro GPU products over time                                                          
Figure 50 Penetration of CPU-integrated graphics as primary workstation GPU                          
Figure 51 Intel's position as supplier of primary workstation GPU, in 2016                                 
Figure 52 Workstation market forecast 2017 - 2019 (units)                                                          
Figure 53 Workstation market revenue forecast 2016 - 2018 ($)                                                   
Figure 54 Germany sub-region, breakout by vendor                                                                      
Figure 55 UK/Ireland sub-region, breakout by vendor                                                                  
Figure 56 Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) sub-region, breakout by vendor                             
Figure 57 Nordics (Denmark, Finland, Norway, Sweden) sub-region, breakout by vendor          
Figure 58 Alps (Switzerland, Austria) sub-region, breakout by vendor